Since the resignation of the previous person to hold the seat of Clacton-on-Sea, some news reports have suggested that he is virtually unbeatable.
Since I announced my own nomination last week, various commentaries in the news and in online discussions have reflected the same sentiment. In other words, if the outgoing candidate is sure to win, every other candidate, including me, has been written off.
For any other candidate to have a chance, we need to see less people voting for the incumbent. In fact, it is entirely possible that some of his supporters will abandon him this time around. Some of his supporters may not vote for anybody this time. Some people may see the big parties are not contesting the election and they will decide to try supporting a new candidate. The death of Ann Widdecombe or any of the other scandals could fracture support for his new political party. If the death occurred less than one week before voting then it may encourage a solidarity vote for the same party. As there is a period of four weeks from the death up to the vote, there is plenty of time for the solidarity to evaporate and be replaced with blame.
If support for the incumbent does not fracture, there is a good chance he will romp in but that is only one of several possibilities.
Once we accept the possibility that support for the incumbent candidate may fracture, we need to ask the question, will the voters who abandon Reform UK be scattered evenly across all the other candidates or will many of those ex-Reform voters band together and support a single rival?
The people who leave Reform UK will not go to the extreme left or the extreme right. Other people never voted for the incumbent candidate will not vote for an extreme candidate. People are looking for somebody who is willing to live in Clacton and do some work, just like everybody else.
As Reform UK has grown very quickly there is a possibility it can also be fractured just as quickly and suddenly if the leaders let people down.
Australian ex-pats have a good reputation for getting work done in the UK. No major project seems to be accomplished in the UK without at least one Australian ex-pat in the team. There is a growing perception that if an Australian shows up at Westminster and does some work each day, other people who took their jobs for granted up to now will become a lot more self-conscious and hopefully they do some work too.
Critically, residents can not rely on social control media to organize a tactical vote or a strategic vote against the incumbent candidate. It is vital for people to turn off their phones and go and talk to their friends and neighbours face-to-face.
More statements will be added here as the campaign progresses. Please check here for the most up-to-date platform and announcements.
Read more about the Pocock-on-Sea campaign, vote for a local Australian for a Global Clacton.